New Kyoto text includes Option for "below 350 ppm" and "more than 95% by 2050"

May 21, 2009

The UNFCCC has released the negotiating text for Copenhagen, which is the first time this has been done. 

It's a 52 page document, which is fully available here:

and

I have extracted some of the key text below, which shows the many options that are on the table. 

These include (Para 12, Option 2) "Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere well below 350 ppm CO2eq and a temperature increase limited to below 1.5oC above the pre-industrial level. For for this purpose, the Parties {shall}{should} collectively reduce global emissions by {81-71}{more than 85} per cent from 1990 levels by 2050."

If this is what we collectively want to push for, we can now refer to our desire outcome as "Paragraph 12, Option 2" 

Paragraph 14 also opens the door to up to a 45% cut by 2020, and more than 95% by 2050. 


11. The shared vision includes a long-term aspirational global goal for emission reductions that is based on science and provides direction to long-term cooperative action, making it sufficiently effective  to bring about the deep cuts in global emissions required to achieve the ultimate objective of the  Convention {and minimize further climate change impacts on vulnerable developing countries}.

12. The long-term global goal for emission reductions {shall}{should} be set

Option 1 as a stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at {400}{450 or lower}{not more than 450}{450} ppm carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 eq) and a temperature increase limited to 2oC above the pre-industrial level. For this purpose, the Parties {shall}{should} collectively reduce global emissions by at least 50 per cent {from 1990} levels by 2050.

Option 2 as a stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere well below 350 ppm CO2eq and a temperature increase limited to below 1.5oC above the pre-industrial level. For for this purpose, the Parties {shall}{should} collectively reduce global emissions by {81-71}{more than 85} per cent from 1990 levels by 2050.

Option 3 as a global temperature increase limited to 2oC above the pre-industrial level.

Option 4 as a reduction in global average GHG emissions per capita to about 2 t CO2.

Option 5 on the basis of:
     Option 5.1 historical responsibility.
     Option 5.2 emissions debt.
     Option 5.3 per capita accumulative emission convergence.
     Option 5.4 an equitable allocation of the global atmospheric resources.

13. Emission pathways towards the long-term global goal for emission reductions require that global GHG emissions peak {between 2010 and 2013}{by 2015}{by 2020 at the latest}{in the next 10-15 years}{in the next 10-20 years} and decrease thereafter.

14. To this end, {developed country Parties} {Parties included in Annex I to the Convention (Annex I Parties)} {developed country Parties included in Annex II to the Convention (Annex II Parties)}, as a  group, {shall}{should} reduce their GHG emissions:

(a) {By at least 25-40}{By 25-40}{By more than 25-40}{In the order of 30}{By at least 40}{by 45}{by at least 45} per cent from 1990 levels by 2020, {with further reductions to be achieved through policies and measures that promote sustainable lifestyles};

(b) {And {by more than 95}{in the range of 75-85} per cent by 2050}.

15. Supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building from developed country Parties, the GHG emissions of {developing country Parties}{Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention (non-Annex I Parties)}, as a group, {shall}{should}:

(a) {{Significantly deviate from the baseline by 2020} {Deviate in the order of 15-30 per cent below the baseline by 2020}};
(b) {And be reduced by 25 per cent from 2000 levels by 2050}

16. Option 1 The Parties shall periodically review the overall progress towards the ultimate objective of the Convention and actions related to mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation, in the light of {the best available scientific information}{an assessment of climate change and its impacts} {intergovernmental scientific} as well as relevant technical, social and economic information, and taking account of observed impacts and efforts made to adapt to climate change, including a comprehensive review not later than 2016, incorporating consideration of future emission reduction requirements and targets in the light of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

17. Option 2 (in the case of a long-term global goal as defined in para. 12, option 3, above) The long-term global goal for emission reductions {shall}{should} be updated to reflect progress in scientific knowledge. To allow for these updates, the 2oC goal {shall}{should} be broken down into partial targets: initially, a 0.2oC temperature increase per decade over 10 decades. Every 10 years, the partial target {shall}{should} be evaluated, with a view to possibly redefining it, taking into account  advances in scientific knowledge and the reduction of uncertainties.

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